Alexander Lukashenko Is Still ‘Searching ‘

It seems that the regime should calm down; the reinforced concrete order has been returned after a threat of ‘Maidans’ that deadly frightened the authoritarian. After one of the opposition leaders residing in Warsaw the forme…

It seems that the regime should calm down; the reinforced concrete order has been returned after a threat of ‘Maidans’ that deadly frightened the authoritarian. After one of the opposition leaders residing in Warsaw the former Minister of Culture Pavel Latushko prompted Belarusians on the Internet to go out and protest again. This time there were no protestors against the regime on the streets on May 9.
Instead, a concert and five salutes were organized in Minsk and people were allowed to the place of celebration after a thorough search. Representatives of the government announced they would not allow to dim the great date and explained their avoidance to walk on streets on 9 May and become the background for a TV report and a fear to be arrested just because of the abundance of militia officers. Just in case…
The government of Minsk has banned massive gatherings since last autumn. 25 March was mentioned as the last attempt to protest when Belarussians traditionally commemorate the Will Day non-officially that has been banned by the regime (announcement of independence of the democratic Republic of Belarus in 1918), however this time it stood out for the arrest of few people who had the nerve to go out with further beating and other torturing.
We have just found out that the final prosecution against a fellow of Svetalana Tikhanovskaya currently residing in Vilnius, a member of the coordination board of the opposition, who decided to stay in her motherland (actually she was arrested on 7 September last year in Minsk and the regime wanted to deport her to Ukraine), a beautiful flute player Maria Kalesnikava was recently received under three articles of the Criminal Code and she can be imprisoned 8 to 12 years.
The inexorable politician on Facebook called her last year as the most complicated, however the happiest years in her life. Unfortunately, this does not change anything. It seems that Belarusians, who bewildered the whole planet with peaceful protests at the and of summer and beginning of autumn, got tired. As a political analyst Artyom Shraibman indicated it was very hard to go out to a protest auction when you were not sure about the expected results, however obviously realizing the risks (the regime has demonstrated ‘examples’ for dozen times).
People realized that protests of that kind held in August did not bring any results, thus it seemed illogical to repeat them, knowing that you would undoubtedly suffer. Besides, hope that Alexander Lukashenko regime can actually be changed in way of protests obviously decreased. Some activists have been arrested, some of them left the country mostly for Poland, Ukraine or Lithuania – this has probably had great impact on the protest movement.
However, the most important argument in favour of apathy is the growing price of protests. Now it is undoubtfully higher than, let’s say in autumn, and there is almost no hope not to be beaten up. Not just beaten up – people are being imprisoned even for administrative offences in a theoretical point of view, for instance, you can be put into detention centre for several years just for a protest slogan written on the pavement, for throwing a bouquet of flowers towards the militia car or an attempt to stop an ‘officer’ who is beating up a woman. Therefore, there is no more possibilities to gather a lot of people in some parts of the city. The regime withstood.
The situation in economy is quite intense, particularly because of internal and company debts, however it is not so dramatic as being announced sometimes – the export is growing in comparison with the last year, there is no massive unemployment and people are not starving. Everybody (international structures, too) agree that there will be enough resources for the regime and nobody cares of what will be next in Belarus.
Thus, the regime can take a rest. However, its leader ‘is searching’ for some reason thus increasing and ‘enriching’ schizophrenia in his country.
Also, on 9 May (of course, it is symbolic) Alexander Lukashenko signed a decree on defence of the country sovereignty in case the leader of Belarus (he) is killed. No more and no less. The decree came into effect upon signing. It provides for assignment of presidential authorities to the Security Service and imposition of the state emergency or military situation (immediately). Resolutions of the Security Service are mandatory without any reservations. The dictator of Belarus called the decree one of the most important in his life.
The Security Service includes eight people besides Alexander Lukashenko; four of them represent the power structures.
Under the Constitution of Belarus in cases of death of the leader of the country or his incapacity the Prime Minister shall take over all his authorities. In this context the Constitution has not been mentioned. However, this is just a minor part. Probably that’s why political analysts of Belarus almost unanimously see the earthly mercantile interest of the dictator to raise the role of the Security Service for when he resigns from the President (anyway, he will have to leave the post at some time, although he has kept a tight hold on it since 1994) to the Chief of the Service and would stay the actual governor of Belarus at president’s cost.
Actually, Alexander Lukashenko was planning to sign a decree already in April after he and the Belarusian media announced ‘a piece of news’ about a plot of takeover of the country revealed by the Belarusian KGB and Russian FSB, as a result of which four persons were arrested, the attorney Yuri Zenkovich has citizenship of Belarus and the United States among them and a political technologist (by the way, who was working for Alexander Lukashenko) Alexander Feduta.
It said that the plot was planned namely on 9 May (later the Chairman of Belarusian KGB Ivan Tertel specified on the TV channel – in summer), in the video report from Moscow restaurant Taras Bulba called Ukrainian (one more symbol) these two persons were discussing these details with people, who were pretending to be Belarusian officers who were against the Minsk regime. The President of Belarus contacted Vladimir Putin, Chief of the Belarusian KGB to the Chief of FSB Alexander Bortnikov and these baddies were arrested.
Immediately on 17 April Alexander Lukashenko announced that the plan was to kidnap his child, one or several (by the way, the oldest sons Viktor and Dmitri are 44 and 39 years old correspondingly and the youngest son Nikolai is 16 years old) as the way might be and close him to the cellar that has been prepared in Gomel oblast. At first, the plan was to attack his cortege, then this plan was dismissed and then the plan was to attack his residence in the suburbs. The plot was arranged with awareness of the highest officers of the U.S. and probably with their approval, because only the US can sanction such an act and was coordinated by special Services of the US, most probably by CSA and FTB.
According to specifications made by the autocrat of Belarus on 24 April the US was planning to invest 10 million US dollars for his liquidation operation and another million would be paid for the killer who shot him. Alexander Lukashenko did not tell who would pay and where this amount of money comes from. Instead, he said that he was suffering for long, kept pushing red lines further, however now when his innocent children got into a threat, this was the end of patience. The baddies would be tortured, so they would not think it was too little.
It was announced on 24 April. People are still waiting for a brutal manifestation of his malice – retribution. Maybe it is for the good, because otherwise innocent people of Belarus would suffer.
On 7 May an inexorable autocrat did not leave a piece of news ‘without attention’ about four attorneys representing 10 Belarusians, who filed a claim with Carlsruhe Prosecutor’s Office in Germany asking to start a criminal investigation against Belarusian officers and the President in person for repressions during massive protests. Alexander Lukahenko called these lawyers inheritors of fascism: ‘I would understand if England or France demonstrated an initiative, because there were allies in the coalition. However, not the inheritors of fascism, as if they will sue me… Who are you to sue me?’ Actually, he also mentioned that he did not reprehend attorneys personally, because they were inheritors of generations that outbroke World War II.
On 28 January during the meeting on matter of state governance Alexander Lukashenko declared that events (protests) in Belarus were a signal that laws were too liberal in the country and the government had been playing liberal games for the recent years. As if the power structures had performed their work perfectly and did not prevent the country from going down to the bottom of the ordinary colour revolution as supporters of protests abroad wanted (here we have the Baltic States, Ukraine and Poland who are deemed ‘favourites’), however, laws have not just promptly reacted and also serve as a prevention against such threats.
These are rhetorical passages, well seen not only in public domain of Belarus, thus ‘and so on’ can be undoubtedly expected.
Once we talk about public representations in Belarus and the statistics: according to the statement announced on 29 March by Human Rights Watch for recent five months the pressure on independent media has been imposed for shutting it up. 18 criminal cases were brought against journalists from September to March probably for their professional activities but not for avoidance to pay taxes, violations of public order or interference with work of militia as it was announced officially. Three of them have been imprisoned for half a year up to two years, the court is still pending for seven of them.
Some more details about matters related to publicity and interpretations of ideas: among books that are forced to buy in Belarus (!) were the books such as a book written by Ivan Turlak ‘A Lesson of the Father of Nations Stalin and Father Lukashenko’, ‘Nazi Pouch in Belarus in 2020’ and ‘Stalin is a Symbol of Belarus’. As people say, no comments required.
A story about 13-year-old girl from Minsk Evgeniya Vorochkova, who had a party with her friends on 29 March and decided to spray a Belarusian word ‘Zhivie’ (Live) on the asphalt, can be described as a particularly expressive (of course, alongside with books) presentation of total cognitive dissonance. Militia officers who were inside the bus closely and noticed a teenager with her friends and arrested them. Nobody informed her mother. She found out about the place where she was only when she called her daughter late at night.
When the woman went to the militia unit next day she was given a report of an administrative offence and statements that she failed to fulfil her obligation to raise her underage daughter, who sprayed a word ‘Zhivie’ in purple on the asphalt on 29 March at half past eight and thus she violated the order of public events. With this word ‘Zhivie’ she was taking an active part in the picket that had not been coordinated with the executive committee.
There is nothing else to add to Alexander Lukashenko ‘order’ on the matter of the scope of schizophrenia.
On one hand, the anxiety of waiting was probably determined by desperate activities when even very flexible Europe has been working on the fourth package of sanctions against Minsk regime that was announced by the President of the Diplomacy of the European Union Joseph Borelli during the press conference held in Brussels on 10 May. The European Council developing it would consider the events that have been taking place in Belarus in recent months and also pressure imposed on the Polish community. Sanctions may have effect on up to 50 persons.
An aspect that has been observed by the Ukrainian publicist Vitaliy Portnikov. The final delegitimization of Alexander Lukashenko in the international arena was the most important internal result of Belarusian protests. The Belarusian authoritarian and the President of Russia have become a duet, where Alexander Lukashenko like some kind of an agile comic just has to catch on the tone given by Vladimir Putin. Just like that.
He is still not ready for integration of Russia and Belarus according to the scenario of Vladimir Putin; the latter is still not ready to lend money to the authoritarian of Belarus for endless integration promises. However, Alexander Lukashenko has almost no possibilities to manoeuvre. The ‘duet’ with President of Russia with rights of approval is his only evidence of his legitimacy that allows to stay in power so far.
This evidence is very fragile, though. Probably the authoritarian realizes that, too and the flow of schizophrenia continues as a result of that.
Arūnas Spraunius

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