Plan of Moscow for Belarus

Just before almost a historic meeting (called this way universally) between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin in Geneva on 16 June, a journalist from Moscow Alexander Ryklin got involved in futurology on the portal (16 June) talk…

Just before almost a historic meeting (called this way universally) between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin in Geneva on 16 June, a journalist from Moscow Alexander Ryklin got involved in futurology on the portal (16 June) talking about what the main topic of the presidential conversation will be. According to the author of the text, it will not be Ukraine, the destiny of the opposition Alexei Navalny or any of hot international problems, but Belarus.
They think that the President of Russia would almost ignore any other topics or talk about them briefly as additional, but will make it clear that a detailed discussion of them is possible only after a full discussion of the Belarusian topic. Although the project of unification of Russia and Belarus is essential and most important for Vladimir Putin, perhaps because he hopes to be included into the history (namely) as a “collector” of Russian-speaking lands and a creator of the empire that was destroyed by his predecessor Boris Yeltsin.
Whereas these geopolitical victories will not be achieved with anger against everybody, in Geneva Vladimir Putin will try to explain to Joe Biden that reduction of tension is possible only when the West recognizes a new state “duo” on the map of the planet. After that, it will be possible to agree on anything, and the advantages are obvious – the problem of Dictator Alexander Lukashenko will naturally disappear, Moscow will agree to normalization of relations, maybe release Alexey Navalny, and maybe even withdraw from Donbas. And so on. Actually on the condition that the West also stops to impose sanctions.
To tell it short, Belarus is a product that the President of Russia is ready to negotiate.
Futurology… Futurology that is confirmed by the reality or not. It is an additional controversial case of the Chekist Vladimir Putin, who is thinking and acting on cover-up operations according to the definition and almost openly enjoys speculations that accompany his algorithm.
Even after an interview with the Presidents of the US and Russia to the radio station Echo Moskvy on 17 June, Press Secretary of Vladimir Putin Dmitry Peskov pointed out that their positions on Belarus differ and that this is by no means a priority of the talks in Geneva. Thus, there are no trade-political interchanges.
As always, the facts are contradictory. For example, on 25 May, the Minister of Interior of Russia announced that the Ministry of Interior of Russia had removed the leader of the Belarusian opposition, the de facto winner of the presidential election on 9 August, Vilnius-based Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya who was included in the database of cross-border wanted list in October on the initiative of the Belarusian law enforcement authorities, which meant that the politicians has been also sought in the territory of Russia.
The Russians are no longer “looking for” her, although the Belarusian State Security Committee (better known as the more common Russian abbreviation KGB) included Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya in April as well as Pavel Latushko, a Warsaw-based member of the Presidium of the Belarusian Opposition Coordination Committee, and 15 others in the list of persons who contributed to the terrorist activities.
On 10 June, Pavel Latushko told to TV channel of Kiev that the Kremlin was funding the regime of Alexander Lukashenko in two forms: by way of state credits and by creating smuggling schemes that were used for sanctioned European goods to reach Russia (an ironic saying about “Belarusian shrimp”). According to the opposition politician, during the entire reign of the dictator (since 1994), Moscow could cost him between 105 and 120 billion US dollars.
A Russian economist Sergey Guriev residing in Paris and a professor at the Instituts d’études politikaques in Paris (Sciences Po), gives an estimate by the International Monetary Fund that Russian subsidies amount to about 10-20 percent of the Gross Domestic Product of Belarus. Alexander Lukashenko remains in power only thanks to regular payments from Moscow and the regime has no other support. Actually, since the Russian economy has been stagnant for the recent 5-6 years, the Belarusians have followed its suit.
Besides, intimidated by the protests, the dictator began to fight against successfully growing high-tech sector (exporting products worth several billions of dollars), efficiently destroying it, because many of its representatives simply left – to Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Ukraine and develop their businesses already there.
Minsk received the last payment of $ 500 million (from a billion approved in December) from Moscow to cover public debts in May. After spending so much, it may not be possible for Moscow to change anything fundamentally.
Certainly, not just because of that.
On 1 June, Alexander Lukashenko told the Belarusian government about the last, third meeting with Vladimir Putin since the beginning of the year on May 28 – that Russia will help the brotherly nation. His views and views of the President of Russia on NATO intentions coincide; Moscow will supply spare parts for military techniques of Belarus, and its latest armaments.
At the same meeting, the Prime Minister of Belarus Roman Golovchenko announced the completion of the coordination of union programs between Minsk and Moscow, which was designated for deepening integration of the countries. Another issue at the meeting was functioning of the Belarusian economy in the context of existing and pending new sanctions. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania Gabrielius Landsbergis informed on 11 February about the fourth package of sanctions being prepared by the European Union.
At a meeting in Vitebsk on 3 June, Director of the External Intelligence Service (SVR) of the Russian Federation Sergey Naryshkin and Chairman of the Belarusian KGB Ivan Tertel, agreed on a common response to the destructive actions of the West, which allegedly destabilizes the political and socio-economic situation in Belarus and Russia.
According to the Russian state news agency , they discussed cooperation in order to safeguard the national interests of both countries, because/when the Western policy is aggressive, directed against the sovereignty of Russia and Belarus. “Of course, we will not accept that, because we firmly adhere to common human values,” said Sergey Naryshkin, summarizing that SVR cherishes partnerships with the KGB. Prior to that, the Director of SVR visited Belarus in October and met Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk.
Chairman of Belarusian KGB Ivan Tertel stated on the state TV channel Belarusj 1 on 10 March that weapons supplied from Poland in large quantities were designated for destabilization of the situation in Belarus up to and including terrorist acts. He also announced even tougher government actions.
On the other hand.
At the end of 2020, the portal of Riga The Insider managed to obtain documents prepared in September called “Strategy for Working in the Republic of Belarus”, testifying about plans of the Kremlin to interfere in internal affairs of Belarus in such a way that Russia retains full control of the republic from the Board of Regional and Cultural Relations with Russia.
At a meeting in the Kremlin on 3 October, the general Vladimir Chernov, Head of the board, said that there was growing massive and deep dissatisfaction in Belarus with Alexander Lukashenko, that was already penetrating the administrative strata. Therefore, the future of the republic is a constitutional reform with an “overflow” of power to the pro-Russian parliament. To that end, the Kremlin must create a pro-Russian pro-Lukashenko party in Belarus. In the document mentioned here, it is called “People’s Law” (Pravo naroda), in the opinion of the general Vladimir Chernov, its base could consist of the majority of Belarusian voters, who are critical of the current government and have a positive opinion anout Russia.
An independent phonoscopic forensic research office of Russia , confirmed on 7 February that the voice in a record was talking about the concentration camps surrounded by a barbed wire fence for Belarusian protesters shooting prisoners in the face belongs to Deputy Minister of Interior of Belarus Mykola Karpenkov. The post was published online on 15 January by BYPOL (a resident of Warsaw), an association of the Belarusian law enforcement officers who did not reconcile to brutality of the government and resigned.
It is probable that it was made in October, when Mykola Karpenkov said goodbye to the staff of the Belarusian Anti-Crime and Corruption Board, from which the commanders rose to deputy ministers. The record also talks about the Russian traumatic pistols received by the Belarusian officials to suppress the demonstrations, that the suppressing officers were “covered” from all sides. And so on and so forth.
The fact that the record can be true is indirectly confirmed by the interview of Mykola Karpenkov with Belarusian official publications. For example, he told the magazine that there were outsiders (unnecessary pople) in the country. It is not even ironic when Alexander Lukashenko declared the year 2021 the Year of National Unity by his order. The unity when all “outsiders” are cut off.
According to Ukrainian publicist Vitaliy Portnikov, if Alexander Lukashenko had only recently played the role of the leader of an independent state, now he is ready to immediately slam into the sea (meaning the meeting in Sochi on 28 May) at the request of Vladimir Putin – of course, the water is cold, but the senior ordered. It is not an attack of political madness, but demonstration of its true essence in the context of the day-to-day practice of political wilderness. The Belarusian dictator is in the “embrace” of the President of Russia for a long time, so it is surprising that prompts (from the West, too) not to press him too much in order to avoid ‘levitation’ towards the Kremlin once and for all.
The presence of Alexander Lukashenko in power is a guarantee that independence of Belarus is impossible. Its independence and democratization depend precisely on liberation from the butcher. Unfortunately, in the current circumstances, liberation is only a wish. As long as Vladimir Putin exists, there will be also Alexander Lukashenko, so liberation will take long, at best.
There is a mistake in the text above – the facts are not contradictory, but rather purposeful. In case the contradiction exists – it is just for pulling the wool over the eyes, and it is done more out of inertia than a necessity. Both the Kremlin and Alexander Lukashenko have reached a level where they do not only believe in contractors, but are convinced that the contractors themselves do not believe what they say, for example, condemning Russia and Belarus for violation of human rights and open terrorism.
For the time being, the relaxing butcher is trying to fill the neighbouring Lithuania with immigrants – somehow in a poor and careful manner, judging from the story published on the Internet on 3 June, when the Belarusian border guards use a broom to remove traces of illegal persons sent to Lithuania. Simple revenge – nothing else is left.
On 8 June, Alexander Lukashenko signed a law that tightens the responsibility of those involved in mass protests. Also simple revenge, but this time against themselves.
With its borders open, Belarus is not even turning into a prison, but almost to a concentration camp, a real wound in the middle of Europe, which is still prone to spread like pandemic “as far as possible”.
Arūnas Spraunius

Voras Online
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Autorius: Voras Online