Realists Baltic Nations Start and Win

Events developing dynamically enable us to make and continue some narratives, which should not surprise us under current circumstances. The same happened with a text ‘European Realists – Baltic Nations’ published here, which …

Events developing dynamically enable us to make and continue some narratives, which should not surprise us under current circumstances. The same happened with a text ‘European Realists – Baltic Nations’ published here, which reminded of somethings what is obvious – tension in Europe have been provoked by the Kremlin. After Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014, poisoning or killing in “some other way” at home and not at home the West modestly show their “concern”, however does nothing real.    
Representatives of the East Europe are talking about threats posed by Moscow and growing geopolitical impudence openly and without evasion has warned from the very beginning and all the time. While the West hesitates, Polish, Baltic, Swedish and Romanian politicians, for instance, in the European Parliament feel the growing responsibility, let’s say also on the initiative of members of the European Parliament from the Baltic States the Forum of Friends of European Russia was established to serve as an alternative to the doctrine of the President of France Emmanuel Macron in order to return Russia to the embrace of Europe the way it is.  
The Baltic nations have always seen this position in a critical way, therefore they initiated discussions so our voice could be heard better, saying that first of all Russia needs to be assisted to go back to the democratic way and not be involved in the philosophy of ”Vladimir Putin understanders” (Putinversteher). Discussions were designated for promotion of cooperation between the East and West without any damage to democracy. One priority is security of the states at the border of Russia and Belarus; thus, solidarity of NATO should remain the basic anchor and the most efficient response to aggressive politics pursued by some countries.     
Finally, President of France Emmanuel Macron, who arrived in Lithuania on 28 August told that he wanted to explain why his country proceeded with the Russian initiative. According to Emmanuel Macron it is based on the desire to have a transparent dialogue with Russia so Lithuania would be informed about it at each stage, how works are proceeding and what could be achieved. As if we want a long-term peace in Europe, we must work with Russia; we cannot live as if the European Union (EU) is far away from it. We must work strategically in order to create security, renewed cooperation, architecture of trust, which enable to stay away from tension, deal with cyber-attacks, disinformation and destabilization.    
The President of France summarized that his country is not naïve in this regard, on the contrary – it is strict. He emphasized his goal to consider the Lithuanian experience in a personal and empathic manner, the heritage of painful wounds of the 20 century of which indicates a different strategic dialogue with Russia than to France. As we know, the 20 century was different to France than to Lithuania. As if the West is making the dialogue with Russia cooperating with all European partners in a very respectful manner.   
Before the visit to the Baltic States (after Lithuania Emmanuel Macron went to Latvia) the French daily Le Monde in its edition of 22 September published the leaked details of the phone conversation of Presidents of Russia and France on 14 September initiated by Paris (it turned out, it was confidential, since it was followed by a scandal when its details have been disclosed in the publication), during which they also discussed about poisoning of the Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Vladimir Putin without even a wink presumed as if the best-known politician of the Russian opposition could have taken the poison Novichok that is recognized as a chemical weapon by himself (Did he want personally to fall in two-week coma? – A.S.). As if it is easy to make the poison, sine one developer of Novichok lives in Latvia (?).
Later a publication Business Insider published about irritation of Emmanuel Macron after the conversation, as if the President cannot lie as a farmer. It is logical that in his address to the participants of the General Assembly of the United Nations (UN) on 22 September the President of France instigated Moscow to disclose circumstances of the attempt to poison Alexei Navalny. Previously Head of France has told that the use of a chemical weapon was the ‘red line’ that was crossed over.    
This is only one fragment supporting realism of the Baltic nations towards the Kremlin. It also explains why Paris that previously was agitating for the dialogue with Moscow (the way it is) recently refrains from the planned diplomatic steps towards this direction – the meeting in Paris that was announced to take place on 14 September in the format ‘2+2’ (Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Ministers of Defence of Russia and France) did not take place. As a representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of France Agnès Von Der Mühll indicated that the meeting was postponed as a result of circumstances (it is not hard to guess that first of all, because of the attempt to kill Alexei Navalny and especially “argumentation’ in this regard). In this regard Le Monde reminded of a visit of President of France to Moscow at the end of August that has been announced and which was also postponed.   
Although during the visit of Emmanuel Macron in Vilnius both presidents – of Lithuania and France – spoke up for urgent sanctions against the dictator of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, thus Paris is as if supporting the position of all Baltic States saying that delay in this respect undermines credibility of the EU.  
A prominent Russian political analyst Andrei Piontkovsky also mentioned about ‘changes’ in the position of the President of France in his interview to the portal Economicheskye Novosti on 21 August talking about the statement of Emmanuel Macron that the US must support protesting Belarussian people and called them unprecedented for this politician, who all these years was acting as a loyal Vladimir Putin’s lackey (the word used by the politician). According to Andrei Piontkovsky, it is of great importance because the President of France has never talked so unambiguously about Ukraine. It is most probable that he and other bureaucrats of the EU were struck by cruelty of Alexander Lukashenko executioners in suppression of protests.    
The political analyst drew a conclusion that we can expect specific strict sanctions of the EU and United States against both the regime of Minsk and Moscow. As regards strictness of sanctions – it is hard to tell, however we can already consider the speed-up of the initiated process of sanctions as a fact. On 29 September Canada and United Kingdom (UK) announced about corporate sanctions against Minsk regime as a result of fabrication of the election results and cruelty of officers against peaceful protestors. The American Congress produced a draft law regarding sanctions against Moscow. There is the EU, sanctions of which have been blocked by Cyprus for one month until the summit planned at the beginning of October, despite of persuasion of Brussels.      
The Baltic nations have been talking about realism and absence of illusions in relations with the East for a long time and patiently, and act consistently and patiently – they were the first to impose sanctions against over one hundred officers related to fabrication of election and unlawful persecution of citizens of Belarus already at the end of September.
The meeting of President Emmanuel Macron with the leader of opposition of Belarus Sviatlana Cichanouskaja in Vilnius ,the meeting announced in public domain of the Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel with the politician that won the election in Belarus de facto just prove that the steps initiated by the Baltic States are gaining speed. The Minister of Europe and Foreign Affairs of France Clément Beaune to the publication Politico already on the eve of the voyage of the President of France to the Baltic States indicated that Paris is open for European sanctions against the authoritarian President of Belarus.  
It seems that the realism of the Baltic States, can work and even shake all Europe. In the eve of the President’s of France visit to Lithuania the President Gitanas Nausėda told to the daily Le Figaro he was seeing the objective of the President of France declared in 2019 to renew the dialogue with Moscow in a quite realistic way. The President noted that France might start cooperation in order to start a peaceful dialogue among the leaders of Belarus and civil society, especially having in mind the role of Emmanuel Macron in the meeting of the leaders of European Council on the matters of economic recovery plan. Negotiations have been hard, however the President of France and Chancellor of Germany managed to reach the balance among groups of different countries.
By the way, cooperation on the issue of Belarus has become doubtful after a remark of the President Emmanuel Macron to the newspaper of France Le Journal on the last week of September that it is obvious that Alexander Lukashenko has to withdraw, Alexander Lukashenko made a usual straightforward and openly harsh proposal to Emmanuel Macron to resign after ‘yellow vests” protest as an unexperienced leader.  
To this end it is interesting and symptomatic that the President of France, who went to Riga from Vilnius, supplemented his narrative with another motive, submitted that the dialogue with Russia would help dealing with cyber-attacks. It is more probable that prior to that Paris would have to face an ordinary disappointment with deceitful promises and/or open fraud.   
The West somehow is not able to get rid of its nativity. During the presidential office of Barack Obama, the United Nations failed to “reset’ relations with Russia, it is obvious that the President Emmanuel Macron, let’s say did not reasonably believed he could make Vladimir Putin turn to the side of civilization. We have what we have – the regret that we have lies like to the farmer. Without any allusions to insult of the farmer social group we are talking about high politics, the transparency and fairness of which plays the major role on the destiny of total nations (in this case, Belarussians).    
Baltic nations know that and have no illusions. In this regard the visit of President of France means European recognition of the Baltic realism.   
Arūnas Spraunius

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